Last year Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh as well as his patron and supporter-in-chief, Congress President Sonia Gandhi had declared at a national newspaper's summit, that their Government was not an one issue government, and even went on to say that they would live by the disappointment of not being able to carry the nuclear deal to its logical conclusion. It was felt after that the rigmarole being pursued after that at the IAEA or even the UPA-left coordination committee to look into the deal was all a charade. Well, Dr.Manmohan Singh obviously didn't think so. So now we have a situation, when the UPA Government's fate hangs in balance, as desperate efforts are being made to save the Government.
Now why have we reached this stage? Is it a sudden realization by the Prime Minister that he is losing his one last chance to leave behind a legacy? Is it his embarrassment of having to face US President George Bush at the G8 summit next month, as some of his drum beaters are suggesting? Or is it his "wily way" of trying to cover his Government's inability to control the soaring inflation?
Before trying to find answers to these questions, let us see why this stand off has happened between the left and the Prime Minister. One should always remember that the Indo-US strategic partnership was not a part of the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP), which was signed between the various partners of the UPA and the left parties, when this government was formed in the summer of 2004.And incidentally not even part of the Congress manifesto. One is sure that if Congress had insisted on including it in the NCMP, it is quite possible that the UPA Government would have had problems even assuming power, as it did so smoothly, of course after that hiccup of Sonia Gandhi rejecting the Prime Ministership.
So when Prime Minister Dr.Singh sprung this strategic partnership on the country in July 2005, during his visit to US, the left parties were left fuming. It is no secret that the left parties have an ideological problem with "capitalist, imperialist" United States, and to add insult to their injury, the man doing that deal with India was George Bush, one of the most hated figures in the communist movement, why even among non-communists, across the world.
But they were pacified with the assurance that everything that the UPA Government will do in pursuing this strategic partnership would be done transparently, and they(left) will also be taken into confidence and only after convincing them will anything will be pursued further. Dr.Singh who was hailed for having got Americans to agree to this deal and in the bargain get India out of the nuclear isolation suffered since the 1974 nuclear test, took many steps. One was the separation of the various nuclear facilities in India between civilian and military facilities. So far so good, though there were murmurs of discontent among not just the left parties but also the scientists and nuclear technologists.
The Prime Minister however convinced them partly that all was hunky dory and Indian strategic interests were not being compromised by this.
Remember all this was happening as the left continued to say that this deal was beyond the scope of the NCMP, and that they suspect the US motives. By then even the BJP had got into its bandwagon, though it would hate to admit that it had similar objections as the left parties, about the deal. The whole argument that nuclear power was the reason behind pursuing the deal was falling through, as innumerable articles had exposed the claim. From Arun Shourie of the BJP to Brahma Challaney a strategic expert and no friend of the left, to several nuclear scientists strongly challenged this claim with well researched articles on the state of power needs and the nuclear energy scenario. They also seriously questioned the US motives behind offering this deal, and also the non-transparent way in which it was approaching the issue. There were too many questions and doubts which remained un-answered.
Yet the Prime Minister helped by a close coterie of pro-US Ministers and bureaucrats kept hammering home the point that this was inevitable for India's future energy security.
Then when it came to approaching the IAEA to finalise a safeguards agreement, left very very reluctantly agreed to allow them to proceed, on certain conditions. And one of the main conditions was that unless there is a consensus on the agreement to be signed, the Government could not go ahead.
But what we see now is that though the left parties, and of course all the critics, including the BJP leaders like Shourie and Yeshwant Sinha, apart from many in the scientific community, remain unconvinced, Prime Minister has now virtually put his and his Government's future at stake to push ahead with the deal. By doing so, whatever little trust he enjoyed with the left parties, has eroded. It is this trust deficit between the Prime Minister and his leading supporting partners which props up his Government that has resulted in the latest stand off and may have already damaged the Congress, UPA and its future prospects rather mortally.
Why is he doing it? Though one would not like to attribute such a thing as personal glory driving him to take this step, it is hard to disagree with those who feel that the two main actors, George Bush and Dr.Singh, are now more bothered about leaving a legacy behind. While Bush is already a lame duck President, Dr.Singh by his recent actions has also ensured that he is a lame duck Prime Minister, who may find it tough to get another term, even if UPA comes back to power. The question therefore is, why two such great democratic nations should be tied down to a deal which certainly doesn't have a parliamentary majority in its favor in India and a doubtful majority in US. Cant we wait for the next Governments in both countries in another ten months time to decide on it? And meanwhile can Dr.Singh please leave up to his own pithy comment that his is not a one issue Government, and try to reign in the inflation, for instance, in the meanwhile? If he manages to do it, he will be leaving a legacy behind which will be far more appreciated by a far more number of people.