How significant is the first phase of polls for the Karnataka Assembly to all the three major political parties and how are they placed? This is the question obviously uppermost in the minds of everyone following these elections, and the answer to this will set the trend for the remaining two phases on May 16 and 22.

With both the national parties, Congress and BJP, making a single party majority (to themselves obviously) the main theme of their campaign, a lot is at stake in the 89 seats which are in the first phase, as it would decide if they indeed pass that magic halfway mark of 112. The Janata Dal(S) has ruled itself out in this race to make it to the halfway mark, and is aiming to get anywhere above 30 seats to become the key player, as it was in 2004.

To get a perspective on this phase it is important to understand that it was the Janata Dal(S) which had dominated this southern Karnataka region in 2004, now consisting of 11 districts. By winning 36 of the 89 seats, it had perched itself in that crucial position making itself inevitable in any government formation. Congress which had lost many of the seats it had won earlier in 1999, however still managed to be a close second with 28 seats, while BJP was a pretty poor third with just 15 seats. The BJP's hopes of garnering majority of the urban votes, especially because of the Vajpayee factor had not been successful, and it had emerged a poor second even in Bangalore city constituencies with just 4 of the 12 seats.

However the scenario in the entire southern Karnataka has changed pretty much now. The reason is the rapid marginalization of Janata Dal(S), and it just does not seem to be in a position to repeat the dramatic 2004 performance. In fact for the JD(S) the challenge is to retain as many seats as it can here, if it hopes to be of any consequence in the next government formation exercise. The "betrayal factor" is working against it among most of the sections except large sections of vokkaligas and the die hard "Janata loyalists" and anti-BJP, anti-Congress minded people. The "why not give them a chance" factor may just work for the BJP. However Congress seem to be better placed than both in the first phase of the polls, as it is bouncing back, with the help of the Siddaramaiah factor who has been able to bring in his own community as well as the other OBC votes.

Bangalore with 28 seats and four more in Bangalore rural district, which works out to almost one third of the total seats, will be a deciding factor in the first phase. Congress which had done quite well, winning 15 of the 25 seats in these two districts, is expected to improve its prospects, though BJP which had just 6 seats is also bound to improve its seat share. How much more it would be able to garner will depend on whether the urban voters would go with an underlying mood in favour of "giving it a chance".

With Congress prospects improving in all the JD(S) strongholds including, Mysore, Tumkur and to some extent even Hassan, it is likely end up as the largest party in the first phase, with BJP following behind and JD(S) a poor third.
However one of the imponderables in this phase which has been not-so-secretly worrying all the three major parties, but more so the Congress, is the "Mayawati factor". The BSP which has been steadily increasing its influence in parts of the State through the years is expected to perform its best in this election. The simple reason for that is not only the remarkable victory after some skillful social engineering in Uttar Pradesh, but the hopes the dalit leader has generated among her fellow youths. It has rubbed off in Karnataka too, and along with it the joining of shrewd leaders like P.G.R.Sindhia has helped the party.

In 2004, though it had just an overall vote percentage of 1.7 percent, it had damaged the prospects of Congress in about 23 seats. In the first phase seats, BSP had damaged the Congress chances in nine seats, by winning anywhere between 5,000 to 20,000 votes. With better oiled machinery this time than in 2004, BSP is bound to cause havoc to calculations of all political parties, in about 15 seats in the first phase, as its influence is spreading gradually beyond the SC youths who have been the backbone so far.

So will BSP end up having some leverage in the formation of the next Government? A ridiculous question to have been asked some time back. But not anymore.