It is said 24 hours is a long time in politics. And last 72 hours that one has been on the road covering seven of the nine districts going to polls in the first phase has been indeed a revealing experience. This area of Southern Karnataka, the hotbed of Vokkaliga politics and the region which got Janata Dal(S) that opportunity to be part of two, well three if you like, coalition Governments between 2004 and 2007, is changing pretty obviously.
What is the most observable change? Well, one should remember that in the last 30 years, it is this region, comprising of the hard core vokkaliga belt of Mandya, Hassan, Mysore and Tumkur as well as parts of Kolar and Bangalore Rural districts had been the happy hunting ground of Janata Dal(S) chieftain, H.D.Deve Gowda. In fact in 2004, it is this region, which gave the party 36 of the 58 seats, anointing him as the king maker as well as the spoiler.

Traveling through this belt now, one gets a distinct impression that the old war horse is indeed fighting his last battle. And it has nothing to do with his advancing age. Mind you he is still as energetic a campaigner as anyone you could find anywhere in the country. It is just that the man who was seen as the sole champion of vokkaligas no more commands that nomenclature. A combination of factors has resulted in him losing the sheen and with it the base over which he held sway once.

His decision to align with the Congress first in 2004 and then later allowing his son to join hands with BJP and later pulling down the seven day old government of B.S.Yeddyurappa, his vicious ways in which he hounded out his once loyal compatriots like Siddaramaiah, P.G.R.Sindhia, M.P.Prakash to name a few, and virtually turning his party into Deve Gowda and sons Inc, have all contributed to the fading image. Amid this gloom, however is one good news for him. His son, H.D.Kumaraswamy has replaced him in the hearts of his loyal followers in the community, and the young man has also acquired some new loyalists from other communities as well.

But that just does not seem to be enough for the party to repeat its impressive 2004 performance. As one drives from Bangalore to Mysore, one sees clearly the star that Kumaraswamy has become in the first 50 to 60 kms, that is encompassing his own constituency, Ramanagaram, a newly formed district headquarters now. He is invincible here. The ploy of Congress to pitchfork, late Ramakrishna Hegde's novice daughter, Mamta Nichani to fight Kumaraswamy has just fallen flat. The lady, who increasingly resembles her father, his enigmatic smile and ponderous mannerisms included, is fighting a battle for the second place, with the BJP candidate, and she might well lose that too.

Kumaraswamy's charisma which is unmatched in his constituency and even the neighbouring Chennapatna however starts losing some of its sheen as one crosses into the neighbouring district of Mandya, the home district of S.M.Krishna. Having won 6 of the nine seats in this district last time, the JD(S) still hopes to repeat that performance, But interestingly, it is not the Congress which is coming in the way. It is one time ally, the BJP, which is making rapid inroads into this district, where they have never been a factor at all. And here lies the story of these elections in southern Karnataka.

Going through Mandya and Mysore districts one gets the same feeling here. By aligning with BJP and running a government for 20 months with them, Deve Gowda and his son have opened doors to its workers and its vote base to now look upto BJP without that contempt that once they had for the party. No wonder in Mandya in atleast three constituencies, BJP is giving a run for the money to its opponents, both Congress and Janata Dal(S) with the help of candidates, who are essentially "migrants" from Congress and JD(S).

This shift in base is more visible in Mysore and Chamarajanagar (newly formed out of Mysore) districts, where the JD(S) is almost becoming irrelevant. And this can be the biggest blow to that party, simply because it had won 10 of the 15 seats in these two districts in 2004.

With most of those winning candidates having shifted to Congress with Siddaramaiah and some even going to BJP, JD(S) has to do with left-overs. They neither evoke confidence nor display ability to take on the formidable challenge being posed by a revived Congress, (which had won just 2 of the 15 seats in 2004) largely because of the OBC vote base which Siddaramaiah has brought in enbloc. The BJP has also benefited here more than in Mandya, as many of the JD(S) workers have started openly aligning with the BJP.   

However, it is a different story as one crosses into Hassan, the home district of Gowda and sons Inc. The family continues to work its magic, with a combination of good development work and age old blood feud with their detractors, and now the solid money power they wield. Congress is however not to be taken for granted here, as the intra-vokkaliga blood feud in this district over the decades has always seen anti-Deve Gowda forces, fully backing the party. And this time with the help of a significant presence of the OBCs, kurubas especially--to which community Siddaramaiah belongs, Congress can indeed fancy its chances better than the just one seat it had won out of 8 seats in this district.

Janata Dal(S) of course has been a marginal player in the now newly delimited Bangalore and its surrounding areas which comprises of 28 seats, though in Tumkur it had a formidable presence in the last elections winning 8 of the 14 seats. But with the resurgent BJP and a revived Congress giving a run for its money, JD(S) is unlikely to repeat the performance this time.

For the ageing Gowda all this must come as a rude shock, and for his son, Kumaraswamy a great lesson, if he has to continue to be relevant in politics.

For the people of Karnataka however, it still does not mean that a single party rule has been ensured after May 25.